While the fall forecast is calling for a wetter and cooler-than-average fall for Western Canada, Eastern Canada will experience the exact opposite with a drier and warmer fall, the AccuWeather 2022 Canadian fall forecast said. La Nina will play a major role in the fall weather pattern.
“For the third consecutive year, a La Nina will be in place this fall, which will likely impact the overall weather pattern for Canada this upcoming season and perhaps into winter,” Brett Anderson, senior meteorologist for AccuWeather, said in the release.
La Nina affects the position of the jet stream determining where stormy weather will happen. Anderson said an active, Pacific storm track is anticipated for British Columbia causing above-normal rainfall and cloudier, cool days. It’s unlikely there will be a repeat of last year’s devastating floods though.
Due to the anticipated position of the jet stream there’s forecast to be waves of colder, Arctic air across Western Canada this fall, the report said. This cool weather may also lead to an earlier-than-usual start to the snow season in the Coastal and Rocky Mountains regions.
Further east on the Prairies, it’s expected to be a fairly typical fall weather pattern for portions of the Canadian Prairies, especially Alberta with normal amounts of rainfall and temperatures, Anderson said. However, the fall could be fairly windy.
Temperature wise, Anderson is expecting a mild fall across the central and eastern Prairies. Large swaths of Saskatchewan and much of Manitoba are forecast to experience above-normal temperatures. However, there still could be late-season snow.
In Eastern Canada, it’s expected it’ll be a drier and warmer fall, Anderson said. There has been abnormally dry to severe drought conditions in southern Ontario and with the dry weather this fall, ground will continue to dry out and may raise the fire risk across the rest of the province.
“Despite the overall warm look to the season, nights can quickly turn cold due to the drier ground,” Anderson explained. Colder nights may also spell early season frosts or freezes.
Further easter in the Maritimes, they’ll also experience a warmer-than-average autumn, the report said. Despite a relatively slow start to the Atlantic hurricane season, it will peak in September and remain active in October.
“The combination of the expected higher-than-normal number of tropical storms and unusually warm water south of Atlantic Canada will lead to a higher-than-normal threat for a landfalling tropical storm or hurricane as far north as Newfoundland,” Anderson explained.
With La Niña conditions expected to continue into the fall, no significant pattern change is forecast to alter these abnormally warm waters before autumn begins. This will leave Atlantic Canada vulnerable to impacts from a tropical system such as drenching rainfall and damaging winds, the report noted.