AgronomyProduction Projections

Production Projections

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[deck]Statistics Canada’s potato acreage estimates for 2013, and how this year’s crop is shaping up from coast to coast.[/deck]

Statistics Canada’s production estimates for 2013 peg the total planted potato acreage in Canada at 361,600 acres. This represents a reduction of 11,800 acres or a 3.2 per cent decline from the 2012 plantings. Some of the reduction is related to late planting in some provinces due to inclement weather this spring as well as cutbacks in contracting volume for processing potatoes.

Kevin MacIsaac, general manager of the United Potato Growers of Canada, says many Canadian processing contracts have been reduced on average by three to five per cent. He adds the situation is similar in the United States, which last year produced a significant oversupply of potatoes that drove prices downward.

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“Potato acres in the U.S. are probably going to be down 50,000 acres and 20,000 of those are in Idaho, which is a large player,” says MacIsaac. “That’s firstly a result of processing contracts being reduced by the french fry manufacturers and secondly, the poor returns on fresh potatoes last year means some growers are not wanting to take the risk of planting open potatoes this year.”

The reduction in acres south of the border should have a positive effect on the markets and help maintain higher prices in Canada. “Most states and provinces are predicting they will have lower yields and that should help us to get prices up — the challenge is to keep them there,” says Matt Hemphill, executive director of Potatoes New Brunswick.

But export markets also affect prices and exports have been soft, especially to Japan. “When exports are soft, it means there is more North American supply and that’s why our export volumes and contracts are down somewhat,” says Garry Sloik, manager of the Keystone Potato Producers Association in Manitoba.

Whatever the markets do, it’s hard to predict how yield, another major production factor, will be affected by the late spring. “We already know it’s going to be a much shorter growing season than last year in many provinces,” says MacIsaac. “So we know the top has been taken off the yield equation starting out.”

Because of management efficiencies, growers expect yield increases of around three to four hundredweight a year in a normal year, says MacIsaac, but the late start to this year’s season has probably already negated any production gains that could have resulted from better management.

That said, prices for late-season red table potatoes were at historical highs as seeding wrapped up, says Sloik, adding that it’s partly due to freezing conditions in Florida that shortened the supply of early season potatoes as well as higher than expected winter culls of stored potatoes from last season due to low quality. These higher prices are creating optimism among growers.

“Growers are cautiously optimistic,” says Gary Linkletter, chair of the Prince Edward Island Potato Board. “As long as the weather co-operates and we don’t get an area that has a bumper crop which comes on stream in the summer, pricing should be strong. As far as the fall crop [goes], we will see what the final acreages and yields are. Right now the outlook is that it should be a positive year — not extremely strong, but just a good average year.”

New Brunswick

In New Brunswick, potato acreages are down by  2,500 acres to 51,000 acres. This reduction has been shared by both table and seed potatoes, says Hemphill. He adds eight producers have left the industry this year, but that hasn’t meant any significant reduction in New Brunswick’s overall cultivated area as other growers have expanded their production or acquired those eight farms.

Seeding was severely hampered by prolonged rainfall in both May and June, which put the crop a month behind schedule. Soil erosion has been documented in some areas and some seed rot is inevitable, says Hemphill, adding that time will tell how much the bad weather has affected the crop.

“I believe the best-case scenario is we will produce an average crop,” he explains, “I can’t see us having above trend lines this year. The 31,000 acres we plant to processing is mainly 120-day varieties, so we hope it’s a good summer with optimum growing conditions.”

Right now the outlook is that it should be a positive year — not extremely strong, but just a good average year.

– Gary Linkletter

Prince Edward Island

Potato production in Prince Edward Island is down slightly by 500 acres this year to 89,000 acres. Linkletter says a number of growers in the province have left the industry, which has helped offset the three to four per cent reduction in contracted acres set by potato processors.

P.E.I. growers had a good start to seeding but the subsequent arrival of cool, damp conditions caused seed rot and a need for re-seeding in some areas. Yield potential generally looks good, says Linkletter, who is fairly confident last year’s oversupply situation won’t be repeated this year.

“We think that we might still be a little over the market needs in North America as far as what’s in the ground right now, but nowhere near what we were last year,” he says. “The weather can take some of those acres out and because of later seeding the yield potential per acre is down from last year.”

Quebec

Quebec had little delay in seeding and the potato acreage there is up slightly to 43,600 acres, an increase of 1,300 acres from 2012 plantings. The profitability of those acres is largely dependent on production in the province’s neighbours to the east and south, says Clement LaLancette, general manager of the Federation des Producteurs de Pommes de Terre du Quebec. About 55 per cent of the potatoes grown in Quebec supply the fresh table market, and 10 per cent of that production is usually exported to the United States. Last year exports were cut in half due to the huge glut of potatoes produced in Idaho.

“The key player in the fresh market is Idaho,” says LaLancette. “If you look at U.S. potato prices and Quebec potato prices historically, it’s mostly always parallel. We always say that for the eastern provinces, Ontario, Quebec, P.E.I. and New Brunswick, the break-even point is 58-million hundredweight. Last year we were almost at that, but U.S. potato production was so heavy that prices suffered anyway.”

With cuts to potato acres in Idaho this year and yield potential already affected in many areas due to late planting, most Quebec growers are optimistic that prices will remain strong for the early summer crop, says LaLancette, adding that fall prices will, as usual, depend on what yields are achieved over the season.

Ontario

The 2013 potato acreage in Ontario is down by 1,800 acres to 38,000 acres, which remain fairly evenly split between the fresh market and processing for potato chips. The decline is a result of a small reduction in contracted acres by potato chip manufacturers and a cutback in acres by some growers discouraged by last year’s low fresh potato prices, says Don Brubacher, general manager of the Ontario Potato Board.

Ontario had a difficult planting season after a normal start, when cold and wet weather caused some seed rot. Overall, however, emergence was good and this year’s yield potential, subject to weather, should be average. “Prices are going up and supplies are tightening, and growers are becoming more optimistic,” says Brubacher. “It looks very good right now for the early market, and with acreages down somewhat here and in the U.S. then it all comes down to the weather and the yields.”

Manitoba

Reductions in french fry processing contracts have reduced the total acreage in Manitoba by 4,000 acres to 72,000 acres this year. “Our volume reductions would be higher than that but some of the yield potentials are off a bit, so some producers have planted a few extra acres to make up for that,” says Sloik.

He adds that while planting started late, it didn’t finish late and, with the exception of some table potatoes, most of the crop was in the ground in Manitoba by the end of May. However, soils remained cool, causing some seed rot and putting a question mark on the yield potential. “Growers are currently still facing some seed piece decay on their farms, and those are bigger issues to them right now than what price the market is going to be at when the crop is ready,” says Sloik.

Saskatchewan

Potato acres are down 500 acres to 6,500 acres in Saskatchewan, which also had a late start to the season but experienced good weather once the crops emerged. Most of the potatoes grown in Saskatchewan are for the seed market and, with the quality of seed produced and tight seed supplies this spring, growers are confident that demand and prices will remain strong this year, says Scott Anderson, president of the Saskatchewan Seed Potato Growers Association.

“The demand for good quality seed is always there,” he says. “The fact that we produce Northern Vigour here in our seed and under virus-free conditions means the demand is there for our seed.

Alberta

Fewer processing acres contracted for 2013 means potato acres are down in Alberta by 3,700 acres to 52,200 acres. However, the total fresh potato acreage is actually up by about 10 per cent to close to 2,500 acres this year, “so that’s a positive,” says Terence Hochstein, executive director of the Potato Growers of Alberta.

russet-burbank
An emerging Russet Burbank potato plant at Woudwijk Farms near Tabor, Alta., in mid-May. Photo courtesy of Terence Hochstein.

While northern Alberta struggled with excess moisture in some areas, seeding was only delayed by about a week in the south. According to Hochstein, the heavy rains and flooding that caused significant damage in Calgary and surrounding areas in June had little impact in the potato growing areas in southern Alberta. “We’ve been very fortunate,” he says.

Alberta growers generally are satisfied with the slight increase in price they received on their contracts from processors, says Hochstein, adding the increase has helped make up for some of the reduced acres.

Russet Burbank potatoes for processing market being planted at the GBIJ Farms/Nakamura Farms near Tabor, Alta., in late April. Photo courtesy of Terence Hochstein.
Russet Burbank potatoes for processing market being planted at the GBIJ Farms/Nakamura Farms near Tabor, Alta., in late April. Photo courtesy of Terence Hochstein.

British Columbia

Good planting conditions in late February and early March meant the new potato crop was on track in British Columbia. Yield prospects, however, appear average as the weather took a downturn after crop emergence.

The province’s total potato acreage is fairly steady at 7,000 acres. According to Tom Demma, general manager of the British Columbia Vegetable Marketing Commission, the storage crop for fall and winter looks to have good yield potential if weather conditions remain favourable. “Growers are fairly optimistic,” he says “They are doing what needs to be done agronomically, and hopefully pricing will be at a level where they can make a profit.”

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