Idaho’s dominance in the North American potato market remains unshaken, even as Canadian growers report production gains. At last week’s United Potato Growers of Canada spring production meeting in Portage la Prairie, Man., General Manager Victoria Stamper outlined a shifting landscape—Canada’s potato production is up, while the U.S. has seen a decline.
But even with reduced output, Idaho’s sheer volume continues to dictate market trends.
“After two years of shortages, they have been under pressure to regain market share—and Idaho is a force to be reckoned with.”
Canada saw 128 million hundredweight in potatoes across all sectors in 2024, Stamper noted. That’s an increase from 2023, largely driven by a better growing season in the East, where producers recovered from last year’s excessive rainfall. Meanwhile, the West saw decreases in processing acreage, after the surpluses of the previous season.
Across the border, it was a different story. “U.S. production in 2024 was actually down just over 5%, with the biggest drops in Idaho, the Columbia Basin, and Wisconsin,” she explained. “Overall, North America is down just shy of 4% in terms of production.”
And then, there’s Idaho. “Manitoba ranks fourth in North American production, but Idaho’s numbers are staggering—135 million hundredweight in that state alone. They produce more in one state than we do in all of Canada,” Stamper pointed out.
Tariffs and Their Ripple Effect
The fresh potato sector saw a noticeable decline in movement last month, in part due to the significant impact of U.S. tariffs. While January shipments remained relatively stable, February was a different story.
“February movement was definitely impacted—some regions reporting a drop in shipments the week that tariffs were in place,” Stamper said. “Many Canadian growers took the hit, paying the tariff themselves to help maintain relationships with U.S. buyers and satisfy customers.”
The processing sector also experienced slower movement compared to previous years. Provincial breakdowns of inventory holdings—tracked through monthly reported stocks—suggest that this slowdown wasn’t just due to lower demand but also included cull rates, meaning potatoes removed from the market for quality or contractual reasons.
Alberta saw significant seed movement, likely driven by growers rushing to ship product before the tariffs took effect. Additionally, favourable planting conditions in the U.S. played a role—Washington growers, for example, had already been planting for two to three weeks by this time.
A real concern for Canadian growers is whether these trade flows will revert to normal or if U.S. packers, having adapted to the temporary disruption, will continue to source differently in the long term. The coming months will reveal whether Canadian shipments to the U.S. can fully rebound or if permanent market shifts are underway.
The processing sector, particularly in the Pacific Northwest, is experiencing an unexpected shift. “Washington State is the only region with fully negotiated contracts so far. In Idaho, processors were close to finalizing deals,” Stamper noted. Meanwhile, volume cuts—anywhere from 3% to 15%—have caught growers off guard.
“The concern is that with all the investment already made—fumigated soils, seed ready to go—some of that acreage will get planted anyway. And if processors don’t absorb it, the concern is that we could see those potatoes hitting the fresh market instead,” she said.
Shifting Consumer Demand and Global Expansion
While inflation has impacted dining-out habits, Stamper noted that quick-service restaurant chains like McDonald’s and A&W are still expanding. “Global fry demand is still growing, just at a slower pace—down from 3% to 5% annually to closer to 1% to 1.5%,” she said. “The U.S. is still importing a significant amount of fries from Europe, and with Agristo building a plant in North Dakota, North American processing capacity is set to grow.”
At the retail level, fresh potato consumption patterns are also shifting. There is growing consumer interest in smaller pack sizes, specialty varieties, and value-added potato products like pre-seasoned or microwave-ready options. Health-conscious consumers are driving some of this demand, as they look for more convenient, nutritious choices that fit into busy lifestyles.
Canadian retailers are responding by diversifying their product offerings, but maintaining price competitiveness remains a challenge—especially with U.S. and European imports shaping market trends.As the industry navigates these changing consumer habits, the focus for Canadian growers and processors will be on innovation, efficiency, and securing long-term market stability in an increasingly complex global landscape, she added.
