Solid yield and consistent consumer demand are setting the stage for a successful potato season across Canada.
Spuds are stacking up in bins from coast to coast. Quality looks generally very good; yields are at least average in most regions and above average in some. 2024 won’t yield the massive crop of last year, but that’s ultimately a good thing for pricing, especially if the U.S. has another big surplus like last year.
“For both the production side and the market side, we’re looking at a generally good news story,” Victoria Stamper, general manager of the United Potato Growers of Canada, says. “We’re not where we were last year, but it’s still a record crop for Canada. And overall, the potato market is fairly decent: on the food service side, inflation means people aren’t eating out as much, but that ends up being positive for retail. Consumers are buying potatoes because they’re a good value vegetable.”
The Growing Season from Coast to Coast
Potato crops across most key growing regions enjoyed near ideal growing conditions to start the season.
“Earlier this summer, things were looking really good, both in the east and the west. Planting went really well, the weather cooperated, the crops looked amazing. Ontario had some difficulties with a lot of rain — their planting was pretty tough — but by July things had bounced back,” Stamper says.
Then, however, thermometers jumped, and nature’s taps turned off, especially on P.E.I. —which doesn’t have as much irrigation as other areas to make up for low precipitation — and in southern New Brunswick, Quebec and through the west.
“That really took the top off yields, we think,” Stamper says.
Quebec also felt the impact of Hurricane Debby, the remnants of which rolled through Quebec Aug. 9 and 10.
“There was a lot of regional variation in the impact,” Stamper says.
“I saw pictures where the sides of hills were entirely gone. Up in Saguenay, they got almost no rain at all. In my region, we got 220mm of rain in a 24-hour period. If you’ve washed away the soil, there’s not much you can do.”
Yield Estimates
The fact that conditions have not been as ideal as last year almost right across the country, together with a drop of about 8,000 acres of processing potatoes in Alberta and Manitoba, means there will be fewer potatoes coming out of Canadian fields this year.
“Back in June, we estimated 127M cwt for Canada, down from 128M cwt last year. Now, my yield estimate — which is just an estimate — is 125M cwt. We’re down in acres and yields are just not going to be what they were last year,” Stamper says.
Similarly, the U.S. dropped its estimates to 428M cwt from 440M cwt last year, which is still well up from the 402M cwt harvested in 2022. Both USDA and United Co-op estimate Idaho’s acreage to drop, one only slightly to 325K acres and the other approximately five per cent from last year to about 310K acres.
If harvest conditions hold, the quality of Canadian spuds should hopefully be better this year than last, especially in terms of hollow heart and rot in fresh market potatoes.
What’s Ahead for Pricing?
Canada has continued to fare better for fresh market pricing through the past quarter than the U.S., though prices have been dampened by supply. That continues today.
“What we are seeing in the U.S. is that pricing is good on certain carton sizes going into the food service market. The retail market, however, is still very competitive. It is only starting to bounce back with new crop,” says Stamper. “Overall, though, our market demand was better aligned than the U.S. market. We’re hoping that’s the case this year too.”
While getting potatoes out of the ground in good time is always a priority, holdover from last year meant processors weren’t begging for potatoes. Cavendish, for example, ran until Sept. 25 on old crop.
“Most of the processors really pushed it out if they could,” Stamper says.
This helped smooth the transition from old crop to new. The downside on the old crop, of course, is how many of last year’s processing potatoes had to be given away or dumped through the summer to make way for this year’s crop.
As the fresh crop hits the retail market, early pricing is — as is usual for this time of year — aggressive. That’s mostly because those selling into the early market can’t (or don’t want to) store, so price accordingly. How that translates to actual returns to farmers is harder to estimate, says Stamper, because Canada doesn’t have a system for farmer price reporting.
“It’s something we’re working on. We’re trying to get numbers from producers but it’s challenging because farmers in Canada — just because there aren’t many of them — worry about anonymity. It’s much easier to get transparent numbers in the U.S.,” she says.
What’s on the Horizon for Harvest?
Experienced producers know not to count their potatoes until they’re in the bin. Due to heat in August, many pushed off harvest to get more bulking up. However, with the Farmers Almanac predicting an early winter, producers have first frost on their minds.
“A lot can happen through October. Hurricane season is coming: that could have an impact on the East Coast at harvest,” Stamper says. We had high temperatures across most of the country right through the middle of September. That slowed harvest and could impact quality. We just want to cross our fingers that we don’t get serious, drastic weather like we did last year.”
It’s not over ‘til it’s over. Happy harvesting!
